The evidence contradicts the idea under the criteria you locked in advance.
Falsification engine · macOS
Test your trading idea before the market does.
Describe a hypothesis in plain language. Quantty turns it into code, backtests it, then tries hard to break it, and tells you whether it was rejected, survived or is inconclusive.
First release: macOS on Apple silicon. No pricing yet. Privacy
hypothesis · restated
“Buying BTC after a 3σ hourly drop pays off within 24 hours.”
REJECTEDfailed 3 of 5 checks
- Out-of-sample Sharpe (walk-forward)0.21 < 0.5
- Probability of backtest overfitting0.62 > 0.3
- Deflated Sharpe ratio0.08
- Monte Carlo max drawdown, 95th pct.38%
- Trades412
How it works
A backtest that looks good proves little. Quantty is built to find out why your idea is wrong, and only lets it through when it cannot.
- 01 · Describe
Describe the idea
In your own words: the market, the signal, what you expect to happen.
- 02 · Restate
Make it falsifiable
Quantty restates it as a testable claim, and the pass/fail criteria are locked before any result is seen.
- 03 · Build
Code and backtest
It writes the strategy in Rust, with no look-ahead and a stop on every trade, and backtests it on cached market data.
- 04 · Attack
Attack it
Walk-forward tests, Monte Carlo, regime and attribution analysis, the deflated Sharpe ratio and the probability of backtest overfitting.
- 05 · Verdict
Get a verdict
A report that says rejected, survived or inconclusive, and shows the evidence for it.
Three possible answers. No “looks promising”.
No score to admire, no curve to fall in love with. Each run ends in one of three verdicts.
The idea withstood every attack. That is not proof it works; it is a reason to keep testing.
Not enough evidence either way: too few trades, too little data, or a check that could not run.
Built to be hard to fool, including by you
Criteria locked up front
Pre-registered thresholds cannot be changed after the first run, so the goalposts stay put.
A holdout you cannot peek at
Reserved data is only opened on an explicit, recorded request, and any use of it is marked.
Every attempt counts
All variants you try are kept, and the statistics correct for how many you tried.
Reproducible by design
Every backtest records a content hash of the exact data it used.
Your research stays on your Mac
Hypotheses, code, data and results live on your machine, not on our servers.
Your choice of AI engine
Use your ChatGPT plan, an OpenAI API key, or an Anthropic API key.
FAQ
Does Quantty tell me what to trade?
No. Quantty tests ideas you bring and reports the evidence. It is not investment advice and does not recommend any trade.
What do I need to run it?
The first release is a Mac app for Apple silicon. You also need an AI engine: your ChatGPT plan, or an OpenAI or Anthropic API key. Full requirements will be listed here before release.
Which markets and data?
Crypto from Binance and other public sources, plus stocks, ETFs and forex through providers such as Yahoo Finance, Twelve Data and Alpha Vantage. Some providers need your own free API key.
Where does my data go?
Your research stays on your Mac. The prompts and results the agent works with are sent to the AI provider you choose. Details are in the privacy policy.
How much will it cost?
Pricing is not set yet. People on the waitlist hear first.
Something else? [email protected]
Get an invite when the macOS build ships.
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